The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) cost estimate on S. 1789, the 21st Century Postal Service Act of 2011, will most likely kill Senate action on postal reform. The National Association of Postmasters – US (NAPUS) posted that S.1789 was bumped in the legislative queue until a date uncertain. By bumping S.1789, the Senate leadership indicated that even though the Postal Service faces the prospect of shutdown this September, there is now enough opposition to the bill that protracted debate is not only possible, but likely.
The “21st Century Postal Service Act of 2011” was bumped by the “Stock Act,” a bill to end insider trading by members of Congress. The “Stock Act” is a bill that will likely pass the Senate without objection. As such, it is the kind of bill that the current Senate takes up when the Democratic leadership believes that no other bill in the queue is sufficiently ready for floor action. In the current Senate, postponing a bill like S. 1789 suggests that opponents are likely to require a cloture vote, thereby requiring 60 votes for passage.
The timing of the delay announcement ,coming just after the publication of the CBO cost estimate, clearly indicates that the budgetary impact that CBO estimated puts S. 1789 on the same debate track that continuing resolutions to keep the government operating are currently on. This debate track makes it much more difficult for Republicans to vote for cloture of debate on S.1789, as it allows opponents of S.1789 to bring up the “bailout” issue that raise postal reform to the top of the rotation of stories on conservative talk radio, cable television, newspapers, and news and opinion websites and blogs.
The Current Challenge: Finding Republican Votes for Cloture
Even before the CBO cost report, the “21st Century Postal Service Act of 2011” faced an uncertain future in the Senate. Union and management association opposition to the bill likely meant that there would be Democratic opposition to the bill, thereby requiring that the bill sponsors find more than seven Republicans to support the bill in a cloture vote. Finding three Republicans that would support the bill is easy (i.e. Susan Collins (R-ME), Olympia Snowe (R-ME) and Lisa Murkowski (R-AK)), but finding ten requires that Republicans that are not considered moderates support the bill.
The remaining Republicans needed to come from the limited number of Republican moderates like Mark Kirk (R-IL), who will not be voting while he recovers from a stroke, and Republicans willing to vote for their state’s interests in preserving postal services over conservative ideological opposition to S. 1789 and any legislation that raises the hackles of conservative media.
The CBO report changes how these Republican Senators have to weigh state interests verses Republican policy orthodoxy. Now, the noise opposing S. 1789 will be louder and Republicans like Dick Lugar (R-IN) and Oren Hatch (R-UT), who face potential opposition on their right flank, will find supporting a bill that allow opponents to say that they support “bailouts” much more difficult.
Can the “21st Century Postal Service Act of 2011″ Be Saved?
The CBO reports on S. 1789 and H.R. 2309 provide three potential paths for saving the “21st Century Postal Service Act of 2011”. None of the paths are pretty and it is hard to see how any of them will allow the bill to reach the 60 votes necessary for cloture.
- The Senate could add provisions to the bill that would force the Postal Service to cut services and raise revenue totaling $6.3 billion. This would likely require the Senate to require the Postal Service to implement the Network Optimization Initiative immediately, switch to curbside delivery within a year, and cut the number of retail outlets in urban area. Postage rates on all products that the Postal Regulatory Commission states do not cover their costs would need to see prices rise quickly. Discounts for non-profit and media mail would likely be phased out. Finally, if these changes do not bring the Postal Service’s budget in balance, the Postal Service will be mandated to impose an across-the-board rate increase above CPI in FY 2013, with additional above-CPI increases likely in the next two or three subsequent years.
- The Senate could allow the Postal Service to significantly cut its average hourly compensation levels to levels that would allow it to break-even. This would likely require a combination of large early retirement incentives and management-imposed labor contracts that cut compensation of those employees that remain with the Postal Service. This approach may also require some of the service and/or rate increases identified in the first option.
- The Senate could allow for private investment in the Postal Service equal or exceeding the actuarial adjustments that the Office of Personnel Management has already made, to deal with Postal Service overpayments of FERS and CSRS and actuarial adjustments OPM will make regarding overpayments for FY 2012 and beyond, as well as likely overpayments due to a recalculation of the USPS’s retiree health benefit liabilities due to more current actuarial adjustments. Right now this investment would need to be at least $13.1 billion and, more than likely, will need to be in the $20 to $30 billion range.
The first option makes no business sense, but makes perfect sense if the goal is to slowly shut down a government service. The first option would likely result in a significant redution in US GDP and could, on its own, stall any economic recovery.
The second option creates real headaches for management in managing its workforce and more importantly could run into headwinds as private sector hiring limits the Postal Service’s ability to cut the compensation of its employees and sets a market-based floor on what it can pay new employees that could be above what a labor-compensation-only solution would allow.
The third options makes the most business sense, but could only become reality if labor unions turn from being opponents of privatization to its greatest proponents.
So without a path to fix S. 1789, its prospects and, for that matter, the prospects of any postal reform passing the Senate look increasingly dim. It may be time for Postal Service employees and postal customers to begin developing contingency plans for a shutdown in September.
yeah shutdown the USPS…no money for your honey…ooohh too bad, toosad!
HELLO ALL FERS FEDERAL EMPLOYEES: TEA PARTIER T.SWEENY’S TEA PARTY AND THE REPUBLICANS IN THE HOUSE ARE CURRENTLY DRAFTING LEGISLATION TO ELIMINATE ALMOST HALF OF YOUR FERS RETIREMENT; TAKE A LOOK AT H.R. 3813 PRESENTLY IN THE CONGRESS.ALL FERS FEDERAL EMPLOYEES: LET’S ALL THANK THIS FOOL T.SWEENY AND HIS CROOKED,COWARDLY TEA PARTY FOR STEALING OUR FERS RETIREMENT.
congress wants to get “credit” for narrowing the “budget defeceit” at “ANY cost”, even at the expense of USPS, which is a nationwide service conducted by 600,000 or so..actually ( 5 million or more employees over time!)
this “CBO” REPORT is ‘biassed’ because it is assuming the overfunding as a ‘teasury” budget while actually it is not. overfunding $ ( 55 billion + 13 billion) should not have been there to create a 6 billion defeceit. this is to play mind games in the voting floor of house and senate. those voters dont have the time to piecemeal this information! simple.
NOW CONNECT DOTS. BINGO.
THIS IS CALLED MANIPULATION.
wow, talk about an overreaction to the senate not taking up bill
s.1789 right after the break. i’m not sure what alan robinson has been smoking, but
this article is just ridiculous dribble.
the economic fallout of letting the usps go broke is a gigantic beast that even incompetent, overly partisan, lazy politicians will not allow to happen. as for alan’s scenarios that he
“proposes” are the possible solutions, they are 10 times more controversial than anything in the
senate bill s.1789, so the idea that one of these “solutions” will come to pass is just
ridiculous.
I am glad this bill has been bounced.. it stinks
Why is it that hard working people like the employees that work for the USPS have to be singled out — because the management there cannot manage their way out of a paper bag?
The USPS employees have been working hard and they should not be the ones to make sacrifices just because Congress and The Senators cannot see the truth as to what has happened to the finances of the USPS!
The USPS was forced into paying into a 75 year pre-funding of their retirement program.. both FERS and CRCS during a lame duck congress with the BUSH administration before Pelosi took the Gavel!– if you look at the timeline of events with the USPS finances you can see after that agreement was signed into LAW by BUSH… the USPS took a nose dive.. And why is it that the USPS is the ONLY government entity that is forced or is having this issue forced upon them??
I smell something rotten going on here.. the makings of a great novel… look at the facts…
This all boils down to the complete take out of the USPS for privatization.
before 2006- USPS making a nice profit on it’s own with no help from the taxpayer
Then 2006 Postal Reform Act.. implementing this 75 year funding in 10 years Garbage deal with BUSH administration which literally started forcing the USPS into a hole instantly
USPS announces they are financially strapped and instead of fixing their broken business model they start the Downsizing process by
National Reassessment Program.. which literally took out or affected 140,000 Postal employees and counting with either no work available or no position available.. then the McConnell Class action amongst 10 other class actions in the past decade. So an entire class of Americans with Disabilities is completely taken out of the USPS because of a Broken Business model.
A change in Postmaster General.. as Potter decides to bail with his nice Retirement that he earned and is still earning years after he left the USPS!
Bonuses being passed out to TOP USPS exec’s while the workers are being told they are about to lose collective bargaining rights.. and see mass closures of plants and post offices which will affect not only the USPS employees.. but the Public and all the Businesses that work with the USPS with Direct mailings ETC we are talking about billions of dollars here.
If this does not smell of a shut down and the break up of a federal entity by politicians I do not know what else does.l…. the USPS begs Congress for so called help
They get help in the Tune of Republicans telling them they need to cut labor to the tune of 250k… but they still need to pay into the prepay retirement fund for workers that will never see the front doors of the USPS because of downsizing.. it absolutely makes no sense .. very disturbing..
Call Your Senators:
202-224-3121
(Capitol Switchboard)
Tell them you Support
S. 1789 as it is currently written.
Kim: I think you truthfully covered it all. No matter what DC is not going to be happy till USPS goes private and they own the stock just like they do in UPS and FedX. Just a bunch of SELF SERVEING CROOKS with no reguard for the workers.
Call Your Senators:
202-224-3121
(Capitol Switchboard)
[Click here for direct #s]
Tell them you Support
S. 1789 as it is currently written
The CBO report should be read in parallel with Urban Institute’s “A Framework for Considering the Social Value of Postal Services.” It would definitely add to the postal legislative debate. A good summary of the UI Study can be read on Mr. Steve Hutkins’ website: http://www.savethepostoffice.com/social-and-economic-value-postal-services . Also, anti-worker provisions should also be stricken out of S. 1789.
OG
Its the fault of the unions. By supporting the Socialist Democrats election after election, you caused what is going on in this country. You and the unions opened it up for the Republicans and the Tea Party to get in and decimate the working people of this country. Don’t give to COLCPE! I gave to COLCPE for 8 yrs. When the healthcare bill was passed and supported by the unions against the wishes of the people I cut COLCPE OFF! They will just continue to give money to the people who will screw this country. Remember the president was supported by the unions and now he is stabbing us in the back with 5 day delivery.
It is not a good bill.. It will not help the USPS.. it just takes away from the hard working employees… the Reforms need to be done from the top down. This political game with the USPS has got to end and the reality of what has really taken place has got to be shown and fixed!
JOE you are totally wrong. It is not a good bill.. It will not help the USPS.. it just takes away from the hard working employees… the Reforms need to be done from the top down. This political game with the USPS has got to end and the reality of what has really taken place has got to be shown and fixed!
Also I find another area of the law very interesting.. Every American has a right to address their grievances. Yet the USPS has several Class actions going as the USPS has discriminated against an entire Class of employees under the American Disabilities Act.
So why is it that Congress and the Senate are thinking that they are reforming the USPS in an effort to supposedly fix a sinking ship would even engage in Reforms that would actually eliminate even more employees if in fact the EEOC’s and class actions are still being discovered for discriminatory practices? I would say that this type of action would in fact damage cases what is already in discovery and give the USPS their excuse for doing these discriminatory acts.
136 thousand USPS employees have been affected in some way by this discrimination because the USPS has a broken business model. That is no excuse for discrimination and this is why I am concerned about ongoing bills going before our legislators. Do they know about the mass of employees that are seeking relief under the ADA and with OWCP which will also separate even more, the USPS injured from the rest of the FECA program in OWCP?
Senate bill S.1789 in its current form does NOT help the USPS, on the contrary, if enacted it will degrade delivery standards, close thousands of Post Offices around the country thereby preventing Americans from easily accessing the mail delivery system. One has to ask WHY in the face of declining revenues would any business want to make it harder for its customers to use it?
AMEND the bill to address the real problem facing the Postal Service – the 2006 Bush Administration poison pill that forced the USPS to pre-fund 75 years od future retirement payments over the next TEN years! If it wasn’t for this blatant money grab the Postal Service would not be losing money!
Think about it…how could a non-profit service designed only to break even and allowed to set its rates to inflation EVER be losing so much money? It has obviously become the target of those privatizers who do not want our government to provide even the most basic, fundamental services for its people.
Well as a USPS employee and dues paying union member who supports smaller governemnt and generally agrees with the TEA PARTY, this is rather laughable. First the biggest obsticle we face is 75 year health care prefunding scam, 10 years to pay 75 years of benefits is simply stupid, but beyond that as far as anyone can tell me there is no escrow fund, so it goes into the general fund and gets spent by congressmen who unlike us do get paid from tax revenue. We do NOT get any tax money if you don’t pay for postage we don’t get paid and frankly that’s a good thing imho. Now spread the prefunding out over 40 years and make an escrow account too and we already look much better! Really how hard is that and it is a provision of this bill that does make sense.
Next five day delivery is needed, we simply don’t have the mail volumes we once did, most customers don’t mind and we could still deliver express, overnight and P.O. boxes an Saturday. Sorry that will make some of my coworkers upset but if we don’t make needed changes soon we will be in for much worse. As far as drastic plant closings, the Postmaster has lost his mind reducing delivery standards will be the beginning of the end and he makes 800k for that? The only plants that should be considered are those who would not make overnight delivery a two or three day affair, customers will doubtfully tollerate it.
Next give an incentive to retire and many will go, if not there is a contract and it needs to be honored. This is not a bad bill and I believe that the bipartisian group made a good faith honest effort to help unlike some of the other outright attacks such as Issa’s house bill. So many good points exist but to just blame Bush for it all while Democrats spend money like drunken sailors is a little sad and dishonest. Both parties are bankrupting the country and had plenty of money to give to failed corporations at tax payers expense, we can’t even get our own money back that came from postage and that is a real shame no matter if you”re a Republicrat or Demican. The unions don’t have all the answers nor are they the problem in this case.
This bill (1789) is bad. It hurts hard working Federal employees for no reason, just political grandstanding. I remember fellow college classmates saying I was stupid for wprking for the Gov’t as the pay stunk and no benefits. Now that the econmy has taken a blow the same people want to take away what little we have. When times where rolling they had no complaints and enjoyed taking money from the middle class, wall street and the greddy bankers started this bad economy and yet we give them bailouts.