Why Mail Matters: Santorum’s Rise Came Too Late for Direct Mail Attacks

Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum experienced a unique bit of luck in his last minute rise in the polls. It came too late for opponents to direct a direct mail campaign against him like the one that devastated former Speaker Newt Gingrich and to a lesser extent Congressman Ron Paul.

The possibility that Rick Santorum’s poll numbers would rise in Iowa was talked about nearly as a joke for weeks after nearly every other Republican presidential hopeful had his or her place on top of the leaderboard. Even as late as the Wednesday before tomorrow’s Iowa’s Caucus no one had any hard evidence that a Santorum surge was coming. Public evidence of his surge did not come until the Saturday before the caucus in the Des Moines Register poll which was confirmed today in the Public Policy Polling poll.

Candidates and super PAC’s supporting them could have begun their attack ads and statements as a prophylactic, a way to prevent a rise from happening. That is what Governor Rick Perry tried starting on Wednesday. Other candidates did not pick up on this attack until the public polling numbers came out on Saturday.

However for all of these campaigns there were few advertising vehicles for these attacks as all available advertising time had already been bought up and commercials for the last weekend were generally set. Candidates can exploit free media by sending opposition research to reporters, talk radio and conservative television hosts, and talk about the failings of a candidate on the stump but campaigns have little control over what is broadcast and how their arguments are framed.

In Iowa, mail could have been the vehicle to deliver the last minute attack on Rick Santorum. However candidates and super PAC’s would have had to have the mailing ready to go by the Thursday before the caucus, a time when most candidates did not see the threat and those that saw it were not prepared to act. Exacerbating Rick Santorum’s opponent’s problem was the New Year’s holiday that even prevented the use of next day delivery of First Class mail for pieces and designed and printed on Sunday and tendered to the Postal Service either Sunday night or Monday.

In conclusion, the last minute surge of Rick Santorum illustrates the power of mail and what happens when that power is removed. In particular, the nature of the need for a new print message delivered at the last minute with a reduction of delivery days due to the holiday illustrates how adding a day to the service standard and/or ending Saturday delivery will affect advertising and in particular campaign advertising once reforms currently proposed by the Postal Service are enacted. This should be something members of Congress should think about.

For more information on why matters in a campaign see:

Why Mail Matters: It Drove the Decline of Newt Gingrich in Iowa

For more on how pricing cound be used to maintaing the current First Class mail standards see:

Could First Class Mail Service Standard Be Maintained?